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McCain, Obama in virtual dead heat upstate

By Tom Wanamaker

ALBANY — Despite holding a commanding statewide lead among Empire State voters, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama trails Republican candidate John McCain in upstate New York.

But McCain’s upstate lead, a single percentage point, equates to a statistical dead heat.

In the latest Siena Research Institute poll, McCain holds a 48 percent to 47 percent lead over Obama among upstaters, but Obama holds an overall statewide lead of 58 percent to 36 percent.

Upstate residents have more confidence in Obama’s ability to improve the national economy (48 percent to 38 percent), end the Iraq war (48-42), and improve health care (53-29).

McCain gets higher marks from upstaters for his ability to keep the country safe from terrorism (59 percent to 29 percent) and for making the “best” appointments to the Supreme Court (46-40).

In regard to personal characteristics, upstaters surveyed rate Obama higher in terms of compassion (51 percent to 35 percent) and intelligence (46-35). McCain was preferred for his patriotism (73-13), experience (83-10), integrity (49-37) and leadership (55-34).

Roughly two-thirds of each candidate’s current supporters have firmly decided for whom they will vote. Among Obama’s upstate supporters, 61 percent are “absolutely certain” of their choice while 28 percent are “fairly certain.” In the McCain camp, 63 percent of upstaters are “absolutely certain” of their vote while 25 percent are “fairly certain.”

The poll also found:

n Forty-nine percent of upstaters believe the state is on the wrong track, versus 27 percent who feel it is on the right track and 24 percent who don’t know.

n Ninety-one percent of upstaters are following the presidential campaign either “very closely” or “somewhat closely.”

n Seventy-five percent of upstaters believe the financial crisis on Wall Street poses an “extremely serious” threat to the national economy, while 23 percent say it that threat is “somewhat serious.”

n Thirty-six percent of upstaters said that Wall Street’s problems pose an “extremely serious” threat to their personal and household financial situations, while 46 percent said that threat is “somewhat serious.”

The Siena poll was conducted Sept. 28-30 via phone calls to 631 likely registered voters throughout the state and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.9 percentage points. The Siena poll is available online at: www.siena.edu/sri/sny.

Another poll, this one by Marist College in Poughkeepsie, gives Obama a nationwide lead over McCain of 47 percent to 43 percent. This poll carries a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3 percent.

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